Thursday, February 12, 2009

GDP Growth

Yeehaw...The WSJ survey of economists on GDP growth is out. The graph below is quite telling.

Note that the interesting issue is not the mean estimate (the little black bars in the middle), but the variance (the size of the bar from top to bottom). What these data indicate to me is that our expectations are becoming more fuzzy, not more certain, which is probably being reflected in the market volatility seen in the stock market.